Linking Reduced Deforestation and a Global Carbon Market: Implications for Clean Energy Technology and Policy Flexibility

نویسندگان

  • Valentina Bosetti
  • Ruben Lubowski
  • Alexander Golub
  • Anil Markandya
  • Daniel Nepstad
  • Frank Merry
  • Paulo Moutinho
  • Mykola Gusti
چکیده

A key climate policy question is how to balance low-cost emission reductions from land-based activities available in the near term with investments to drive technological innovation in energy, industry, and other sectors over the medium to long term. This paper uses a global climate-energyeconomy model to investigate the implications of linking Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) credits to a global carbon market, with a focus on the consequences for technology innovation in the energy sector. Deforestation mitigation lowers the total costs of a policy to stabilize emissions at 536 ppmv of CO2-equivalent by an estimated 10-25%, depending on the policy scenario. Alternatively a global REDD program enables additional reductions of about 20 ppmv with no added costs compared to an energy-sector only policy. These cost savings entail modest tradeoffs in terms of reduced clean energy innovation overall, with small positive effects on the development of some technologies, including carbon capture and storage. Moreover, while reduced clean energy innovation could in principle handicap future efforts to reduce global emissions, this analysis suggests that the availability of REDD helps in net terms to preserve climate policy flexibility. The synergy between REDD and credit banking provides a head start on climate mitigation that is an aggregate hedge against potentially higher costs due to unexpected future increases in the stringency of climate policy. Integrating REDD into global carbon markets could thus lower policy costs and facilitate more ambitious climate policies now and in the future.

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تاریخ انتشار 2010